(Latest Update April 2025)
It is difficult to determine which areas of Istanbul are completely safe from earthquakes, as the city is located in an earthquake-prone region and has experienced several significant earthquakes in its history. Earthquakes can occur anywhere in the city and their impact can be influenced by many factors, including the location and depth of the earthquake, the type of soil and geology in the area, and the design and construction of buildings.
However, the Turkish government has implemented strict building codes and construction standards in recent years to improve the seismic resistance of new buildings in Istanbul and other cities in Turkey. Additionally, some areas of the city are considered to be less vulnerable to earthquakes due to their geology and soil conditions. For example, areas built on solid rock or clay may experience less damage from earthquakes than areas built on soft soil or marshland.
Earthquake risk information for some of the major cities according to the earthquake map are as follows;
| Istanbul Earthquake Risk | Istanbul is generally located on the red belt zone. Some districts are located in the yellow zone while Ataturk and Sabiha Gokcen airports are located in the red earthquake zone. Istanbul New Airport is located in the yellow earthquake zone. There was a M7.6 earthquake at 17 August 1999 in Istanbul. |
| Ankara Earthquake Risk | Ankara is a safer region compared to other major cities in terms of earthquake. The majority of the city is located in the yelllow and white earthquake zones |
| Izmir Earthquake Risk | Izmir is in a dangerous area in terms of earthquake. Almost all of the city is located in the red earthquake zone. |
| Antalya Earthquake Risk | Antalya is one of Turkey’s earthquake safe areas. While the city center is located in the yellow zone, many districts are located in the white belt showing the safest seismic zones. Therefore, the safest holiday area in terms of Turkey’s earthquake risk could be called the Antalya region |
When it comes to investment, as Homist, we suggest all our investors and home buyers to take precautions and prepare for earthquakes, regardless of where you live or invest in Istanbul. When you are living any location you need to have family emergency plan, securing heavy objects in your home, and having emergency supplies on hand. If you are investing, you need to understand many technical information about the apartment or project. Normally the developers are not willing to share technical information, however your property consultant may have more access to those data. You would better to consult with an experienced agent in the region to understand about quality of buildings and reputation of developers before you start purchasing process.
Unfortunately, it is not possible to provide a definitive list of districts in Istanbul that are considered completely safe from earthquakes. As mentioned earlier, earthquakes can occur anywhere in the city and their impact can be influenced by various factors such as the location and depth of the earthquake, the type of soil and geology in the area, and the design and construction of buildings.
Istanbul is located in a highly seismic zone, so it’s important to consider earthquake safety when choosing a location to live or work. However, it is difficult to determine specific areas of Istanbul that are completely “anti-earthquake,” as even the strongest buildings and infrastructure can be damaged in a major earthquake.
That being said, some areas of Istanbul have been identified as being less prone to damage in the event of an earthquake. These areas generally have soils with a high content of clay, which can help to reduce ground shaking. Some examples of these areas include the neighborhoods of Sarıyer, Levent and Maslak on the European side of the city, and Üsküdar , Beykoz and Ümraniye on the Asian side.
It is also worth noting that new buildings in Istanbul are required to meet strict seismic codes and regulations, so newer buildings in any part of the city may be more earthquake-resistant than older ones. Newer buildings in Istanbul, are required to meet strict seismic codes and regulations, so these buildings may be more earthquake-resistant than older ones. It’s important to keep in mind that even in areas considered to be less prone to damage, there is still a risk of earthquakes and would be a good idea to prepare for earthquakes by creating an emergency plan, having earthquake supplies on hand, and knowing what to do during an earthquake.
Latest Developments in Istanbul’s Earthquake Risk and Preparedness (2025 Update)
Istanbul remains one of the world’s most earthquake-prone megacities due to its proximity to the North Anatolian Fault, and recent events and scientific assessments have only heightened concerns about the city’s seismic vulnerability.
Recent Earthquake Activity
On April 23, 2025, a 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck the Sea of Marmara, about 40 kilometers southwest of Istanbul. The tremor lasted 13 seconds and was followed by over 100 aftershocks, the strongest measuring 5.9. While the event resulted in at least 359 injuries and moderate damage-including the collapse of an abandoned building in Istanbul’s Fatih district-it served as a stark reminder of the city’s ongoing risk. Authorities evacuated multiple buildings, opened emergency shelters, and closed schools in Istanbul and Tekirdağ for two days, with around 100,000 people spending the night in designated shelters.
Updated Scientific Predictions and Risk Assessments
Recent studies from leading seismologists, including Prof. Dr. Marco Bohnhoff and Dr. Naci Görür, reaffirm that Istanbul faces a high probability of a major earthquake. Updated data suggest:
- There is a 50% chance of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake within the next seven years, and a greater than 90% chance by 2070.
- If the Kumburgaz and Adalar fault segments both rupture, a catastrophic 7.5-magnitude quake could occur, with a 65% probability within the next 30 years.
Historical models predict that a 7.5-magnitude event could collapse up to 30% of buildings, cause over 100,000 casualties, and result in $300 billion in losses. More conservative but still alarming estimates suggest at least 5,000 buildings would collapse instantly, with 20–40% of the city’s buildings rendered uninhabitable and 60–80% sustaining some form of damage.
High-Risk and Lower-Risk Areas
- Districts built on soft soil near the Marmara Sea, such as Zeytinburnu, remain particularly vulnerable due to rapid, often unregulated urbanization.
- Neighborhoods like Sarıyer, Levent, and Maslak (European side), and Üsküdar, Beykoz, and Ümraniye (Asian side), built on more stable soils, are considered relatively less prone to severe shaking, but no area is completely safe.
- The latest 2025 AFAD Earthquake Hazard Map continues to classify most of Istanbul in high-risk zones, with only a few districts in the yellow (moderate risk) category.
Building Codes, Urban Transformation, and Legal Reforms
Following the catastrophic earthquakes of 1999 and 2023, Turkey has significantly strengthened its building codes. The Turkish Building Earthquake Code (2018) and subsequent reforms require strict seismic design standards for new buildings and mandate retrofitting for older, at-risk structures. In 2024, further legal changes simplified the process for retrofitting multi-owner buildings and set new standards for construction in flood-prone areas.
Urban transformation projects have accelerated, focusing on reinforcing high-risk buildings and restoring cultural heritage sites. Enhanced financial incentives and stricter oversight mechanisms have been introduced to expedite these efforts and ensure compliance with modern codes. However, Istanbul’s sheer size and the prevalence of older buildings constructed before modern standards pose ongoing challenges.
Preparedness and Public Awareness
The recent 2025 earthquake prompted a surge in structural assessments and public demand for information about building safety. Disaster awareness campaigns and emergency preparedness drills are ongoing, but experts emphasize the need for continued vigilance and individual preparedness, such as creating emergency kits and family plans.
Safer Provinces in Turkey
For those seeking lower seismic risk, AFAD’s 2025 map identifies 23 provinces with significantly lower earthquake risk, mostly in central and northern Turkey-far from major fault lines. However, these are outside Istanbul and not relevant for those committed to living or investing in the city.
Key Takeaways for Residents and Investors
- No area of Istanbul is completely safe from earthquakes, but districts on stable ground and in newer, code-compliant buildings offer relatively lower risk.
- Recent legal reforms have made it easier to retrofit older buildings and mandate higher safety standards for new construction.
- Preparedness is essential: Residents should have emergency supplies, secure heavy objects, and know evacuation procedures.
- Consult professionals: When investing, seek detailed technical information about buildings and consult experienced agents familiar with local construction standards.
Despite ongoing efforts, Istanbul’s earthquake risk remains high, and the city’s resilience depends on continued vigilance, strict enforcement of building codes, and proactive urban transformation. The events of 2025 underscore the urgency of these measures for both public safety and investment security.
Final Note:
We highly suggest to analyze the areas of Istanbul , however the real estate market can be subject to change and these areas may not necessarily be the best options for investment in the future. It’s always best to conduct thorough research and consult with professionals before making any investment decisions.
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